Hurricane Beryl is making its trek towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and as meteorologists point to record warm waters as its driving force, some say those temperatures could lead to stronger and longer storms — including for Canada.
The storm has already broken several records, including the earliest Category 5 storm to ever form in the Atlantic and, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane researcher, the farthest east a hurricane has formed in the region.
It strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours and is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Chris Fogarty, head of the Canadian Hurricane Centre, told Global News the warm waters being seen now are coming much earlier than normal.
“The ocean conditions are very much more like late August or early September,” he said. “We saw this developing, these ocean conditions, and we were wondering ourselves, ‘(It will) be interesting now when the first big storm forms,’ and lo and behold, here it is.”
What does the storm signal for Canada?
It’s not just the usual tropical regions that could feel the heat from the increasing warm waters.
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Fogarty noted officials have been seeing a “very warm patch of water” about seven degrees above normal in polar regions like Canada, which could give added fuel to storms this season.
“If it does form and move up toward Eastern Canada, it may hold onto those tropical characteristics a little bit longer than it would in normal conditions,” he said.
“It’s no longer the case where we can assume that we’ll just get the tail end of hurricanes. They’re coming in more frequently.”
According to Fogarty, there has been more warming in the atmosphere at higher latitudes, including in polar regions.
This means the temperature differences between polar regions and the tropics are not as different as they once were, which in turn leads to both the jet stream and weather patterns becoming sluggish.
This could lead to hurricanes forming closer to Canada.
“You can have them form at higher latitudes, where there’s not as much disturbing wind patterns in the surroundings so you can get hurricanes maybe forming a little bit further north, closer to Nova Scotia, closer to Canadian areas,” Fogarty said.
“That could be a threat as well.”
Don’t expect a storm to form right off the coast of Nova Scotia, though, said Matt Rosencrans, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.
“Even development over an area north of (the) latitude of North Carolina and Bermuda, that would be nearly impossible because even if you’re above normal temperatures, you’re still five, six degrees too cold for the condition to develop a tropical storm,” he explained.
He added that a subtropical storm could develop, but couldn’t reach hurricane strength.
Rosencrans, however, echoed Fogarty in stating what warmer water near the poles could mean.
“That warmer water is still an energy source,” he said.
Prepare before the storm ‘is even in the news’
NOAA predicted this Atlantic hurricane season would be above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms, 13 of which could become hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season typically produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three becoming major.
With Beryl’s record-breaking early strength and the speed at which it became a Category 5, both Rosencrans and Fogarty point to the need to prepare now.
“Our messaging these days is to try to get people thinking in terms of longer timescale, like before the storm is even in the news or on the map,” Fogarty noted.
This can include planning for potential flooding, ensuring devices that need charging are fully charged in case of power outages as well as finding ways to charge even if the electricity goes out, and having three days worth of supplies, including food and other items that won’t spoil.
—with files from The Associated Press
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