U.S. President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump will face off Thursday night in their first debate of 2024, which is expected to solidify the stakes of November’s election.
Millions are expected to tune into CNN, which is hosting the debate in Atlanta, offering a rare opportunity for both sides to try to gain momentum in a race that will likely be decided by a small fraction of voters in a handful of battleground states.
The match-up will again set a record for the oldest presidential opponents in American history. Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, are both facing questions about their mental and physical fitness for the job.
For Biden especially, analysts say there’s pressure to convince unsure voters he has another four years of effective governing left in him.
“There’s some drama and suspense, given the age of both and the way that the age of both of them is a problem for many voters,” said Stuart Streichler, a professor at the University of Washington who studies presidential accountability and campaigns.
Biden and Trump will face off Thursday at 9 p.m. ET for 90 minutes.
Here’s what you need to know:
The presidential race is incredibly close, with less than one percentage point separating Biden and Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
The debate is being held weeks before Democrats and Republicans officially nominate their presidential candidates at their respective conventions in July, marking an unusually early start for a country already known for lengthy campaign seasons.
Typically, general election debates aren’t held until late September.
But Trump dominated the Republican primaries earlier this year and has effectively rallied the GOP around him again — a remarkable political comeback for a president who left office in disgrace in 2021 and was convicted last month of 34 felony charges.
“The fact the opposition candidate has the nomination sewn up so early … speaks to how the Republican Party is really now Trump’s party,” said Matthew Lebo, a political science professor at Western University.
Although debates historically rarely move the needle in presidential campaigns, a race this close means even a tiny movement is important, Lebo added.
The question this time is whether any moment from the debate will still be in the minds of voters more than four months later.
Biden and Trump will debate at a CNN studio in Atlanta with no audience. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. No props or pre-written notes will be allowed on stage. The candidates will be given only a pen, a pad of paper and a bottle of water.
There will be no opening statements, but there will be closing statements. A coin flip determined that Trump would deliver the final word of the night.
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Producers were likely eager to avoid repeating the calamitous first debate of the 2020 election, when Trump interrupted and talked over Biden so much that the Democrat and the moderator grew increasingly exasperated.
Beyond his age and mental fitness, a key hurdle Biden must overcome is the country’s sour view of the economy.
The White House has continually pointed out that inflation and unemployment have come down from their peaks earlier in Biden’s presidency, which has seen the creation of 15 million jobs to date. The major U.S. stock indexes are hitting record highs, and consumer sentiment indexes are ticking up.
But the latest polls suggest average Americans aren’t seeing the same picture: only about a quarter of respondents to a Pew Research Center poll in May said the economy is in good or excellent shape, with over 60 per cent saying inflation remains a problem. A Harris-Guardian poll found roughly 55 per cent of those surveyed believe the economy is shrinking and is in a recession — neither of which are true, based on the most recent economic data available.
The rising cost of living and growing housing unaffordability are among the top concerns of voters — issues that are familiar to Canadians and people around the world.
If Biden brings those same White House statistics to the debate, Streichler says, he’ll fail to connect with viewers who want to see him recognize their reality and that more needs to be done.
“It’s more than just saying, ‘I really feel your pain,’” he said. “People have to sense that he actually does feel how difficult it is.
“The best political move, as always, is to turn it on Trump and say, ‘Trump is going to give tax relief to billionaires and he doesn’t really care about you, and I do.’ That is what Biden has to try to get across.”
Abortion, immigration, Gaza among top issues
Abortion, immigration and the future of American democracy are expected to among the other top issues raised at the debate — each of which poses pitfalls for both candidates.
Trump has taken credit for appointing the three conservative justices that enabled the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion, creating a legal and jurisdictional minefield across the country. Biden will be eager to highlight Trump’s role.
Trump has said he would not support a national limit on abortion, saying it should be left to the states. But he has changed his position many times over the years.
Trump will also likely be pressed on whether he will accept the results of the election if he loses, after he falsely claimed the 2020 race was “stolen” from him through widespread fraud. He faces federal and state charges in Georgia over his attempts to overturn his loss, and the attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, remains a divisive issue for Americans.
Analysts say he risks alienating voters if he continues to double down on his claims of a “rigged” election and vows of “retribution” against his political enemies.
For Biden, immigration will also be a key liability. Trump is expected to hammer him on the number of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, which have surged between the two administrations.
Biden also faces anger from younger progressives and Arab-Americans over his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza — an issue that may affect voter turnout.
“I think a lot of young voters are going to just not vote in this election, and that will be a reason a lot of them cite for sitting it out,” Lebo said.
While there is no shortage of policy issues to discuss, the debate may likely devolve into personal attacks, analysts say — particularly on their legal issues.
“These two people hate each other,” Streichler said.
Biden so far has not explicitly attacked Trump for his felony conviction last month in his New York hush money trial, or the three other indictments he currently faces, to avoid the appearance of political interference. But that could change if he’s specifically asked about them.
Trump may also bring up conviction earlier this month of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, on firearms charges and allegations the Biden family has worked to enrich themselves through the influence Joe Biden has wielded in government.
Analysts expect the debate will be watched by Americans and allies worldwide for clues about where the U.S. is heading.
Foreign viewers will want to hear Biden and Trump’s visions for international trade and the future of the NATO defence alliance — all of which have implications for Canada.
European and Indo-Pacific allies, too, will be invested in both men’s visions for NATO and the war in Ukraine, and how to respond to aggressive global powers like Russia and China.
“Their foreign policies and their willingness to engage with their allies (are) so different, that it’s of substantial importance around the world,” Streichler said.
