After more than five decades in power, the al-Assad dynasty in Syria was toppled on Sunday as President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia and rebels took the capital Damascus.
Assad’s departure brought to a dramatic close his nearly 14-year struggle to hold onto control as his country fragmented in a brutal civil war.
While the rebel coalition was made up of several factions, the group believed to be leading the offensive across Syria is the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS.
What is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham?
According to the United States National Counterterrorism Center’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a coalition of northern Syria-based “Sunni Islamist insurgent groups” that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front.”
That is al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria.
The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani — which is alternately spelled as al-Jawlani and al-Jolani — broke ties with al-Qaida in 2016. The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center says the break occurred over “strategic disagreements.”
In 2017, the Nusrah Front merged with other anti-Assad groups in Syria to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Joseph Varner, deputy director of the Conference of Defence Associations, said for al-Golani, al-Qaida was too extreme.
“The point of departure has always been that they found al-Qaida and ISIS as being too violent and not interested in civil rights,” Varner said.
The U.S. State Department designated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization in 2018, a designation it holds to this day.
Who is Abu Muhammad al-Golani?
Al-Golani’s ties to al-Qaida stretch back to 2003, when he joined insurgents battling U.S. troops in Iraq. The Syrian native was detained by the U.S. military but remained in Iraq, according to the Associated Press.
During that time, an al-Qaida splinter group formed called the Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
In 2011, a popular uprising in Syria against Assad triggered a brutal government crackdown and led to all-out civil war. Al-Golani’s prominence grew when al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish a the Nusrah Front.
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The U.S. government has put a US$10 million bounty on him.
In 2013, the Associated Press reported that al-Golani had defied al-Baghdadi’s calls to dissolve the Nusrah Front and merge it with al-Qaida’s operation in Iraq, to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.
Al-Golani nonetheless pledged his allegiance to al-Qaida, which later disassociated itself from ISIS. In 2016, he also broke away from al-Qaida.
As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters Sunday, he dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself with his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the Associated Press reported.
“Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions,” he said in an interview with CNN last week, offering the possibility HTS would eventually be dissolved after Assad falls.
“Don’t judge by words, but by actions,” he said.
Ferry de Kerckhove, former Canadian diplomat and former Canadian ambassador to Egypt, said western nations might have to sit down at the table with al-Golani.
“He has a bounty of (US) $10 million that the Americans have put on him. I don’t know how he’s going to be received in various palaces in Europe and the states, but I think they’ll have to cancel that one because he is clearly a leader,” de Kerckhove said.
What are the early signs?
Since breaking with both al-Qaida and ISIS, al-Golani has sought to distance himself from both groups.
Evren Altinkas, adjunct professor at the University of Guelph, said al-Golani identified not only the Assad regime, but also ISIS as his enemy.
“Al-Golani understood the fact that if he continues to insist on his original Salafist Islamist ideology, he may not get the full support of Western media and world public opinion,” he said.
Altinkas said al-Golani has been aggressively pushing a message of moderation.
“(He wants to) tell the world and tell to the regional countries that he is not as he was before, and he wants to create a united, stable democracy in Syria. But, of course, it will be under the guidance of the Islamic rule.”
De Kerckhove said the early signs from al-Golani are encouraging.
“His very first measure, which I admire, was to allow the government to continue to run the show,” he said, referring to HTS’s decision to allow Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir to remain in office.
While his past as a former extremist commander has worried some observers, many are watching for what he has said in recent times.
In a recent interview with CNN, al-Golani said they would assure Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities would enjoy rights in Syria after Assad was overthrown.
“He’s saying all the right things that would give you hope,” Varner said.
He added, “He’s a bit of a chameleon. He swore loyalty to Zarqawi (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) then to Baghdadi (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) and broke with both and formed his own organization. Now he’s trying to look like a statesman. He’s a guy that changes with the times.”
HTS has controlled Syria’s northwestern Idlib region since 2018.
Observes say it could be a precursor to how they would govern Syria.
“Based on the reports that we have been receiving from that region, they have been fair towards other groups within the region,” Altinkas said.
However, he added that it isn’t enough to ascertain how they would treat minorities over a larger area. Many minority-dominated areas saw people leaving for other parts of Syria or going abroad during the civil war, he said.
HTS, which Altinkas said is seen as being backed by Turkey, will also have to take control of the Kurdish-controlled northern parts of the country to avoid a further escalation of conflict.
He said, “I believe Syria is a potential powder keg for conflict and for more proxy wars in the upcoming months if al-Golani cannot achieve his goals by bringing together all these groups and establishing a democratic state with elections.”
The civil war in Syria has been raging since before HTS was formed.
So how did HTS succeed in doing what rebel groups haven’t managed to do for 14 years?
Varner said it was a question of getting the timing right, with Assad’s allies occupied with other conflicts.
“The Russians are very busy with Ukraine. The Iranians were heavily distracted by what was happening to Hezbollah. And I think Hezbollah has been severely damaged,” he said.
“Those three things set the circumstances for the rebel forces to march on Damascus. The Syrian army didn’t want to fight. After 14 years, they didn’t want to play the game. All the chickens came home to roost and the government fell.”
–with files from The Associated Press
