U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will meet for their first — and possibly only — presidential debate Tuesday before Americans head to the polls in November.
The debate, which will air on ABC and affiliated channels and streaming apps at 9 p.m. Eastern, will air as early voting is set to get underway in some states beginning this week.
It also marks the first time since the race for the White House was upended this summer when Harris replaced U.S. President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.
Biden dropped his re-election bid after a disastrous debate with Trump in June that thrust the issue of his age and fitness into the spotlight. This time around, Trump will face Harris, an experienced debater and prosecutor who has so far been able to articulate her vision for the country in a way Biden failed to do.
And with Harris, 59, now the younger opponent, the 78-year-old Trump may be scrutinized over his own age and performance.
But Harris is facing pressure to outline her agenda and define herself to voters on an accelerated timeline. How she bats away the insults and interruptions of Trump, a seasoned debater in his own right, will also be closely watched.
“I think this debate could be the decisive event of the campaign,” said Stuart Streichler, a professor at the University of Washington who studies presidential accountability and campaigns.
The debate will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pa., an important battleground state seen as key to either candidate winning the presidency.
ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis will serve as the moderators.
The candidates’ microphones will be muted when it is not their turn to speak, as they were during the June debate between Trump and Biden.
That will limit the ability for interruptions — a key tactic of Trump’s during past debates against Biden and Hillary Clinton.
There will be no live audience and no props or pre-written notes will be allowed. No opening statements will be delivered. Trump won the coin toss that allowed him to choose giving the final closing statement of the night.
The race between Harris and Trump is extremely close.
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Although Harris leads Trump by a couple of points in national polling averages, the two are effectively tied and battling for every last vote in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan that are key to winning the Electoral College.
Voters have identified the economy as a top issue of concern after years of high inflation and rising cost of living.
Trump is seen in many polls as more trusted on economic issues, and Harris’ most detailed policy proposals so far have been focused on economic concerns like taxes, housing and price gouging in the grocery industry.
Expect those and more to feature prominently in the debate, analysts say.
“The economy presents a real test where they might have to get into details behind their policies,” Streichler said.
“Their goal overall will be to show their command of policy without having to provide specifics, and each of them will want to talk about their own advantages. But here, it could be different.”
Immigration, abortion also likely
Republicans hope Trump makes immigration a defining issue of the debate.
The GOP has condemned the Biden administration’s handling of illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border for much of the last four years, although a surge in border crossings under Biden has recently subsided.
Harris will be eager to remind voters that Trump helped kill a bipartisan immigration bill that Democrats and some Republicans say would have done much to fix the problem. But overall, Harris is likely to be on the defensive when the issue comes up.
Democrats, meanwhile, want to focus on abortion.
Trump appointed three U.S. Supreme Court justices who later voted to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that protected a woman’s right to choose abortion. Trump has repeatedly said he was proud that Roe was defeated, but has also tried to moderate his stance and flip-flopped over whether he will vote for or against an abortion protection measure in his home state of Florida.
Harris is seen as far more trusted on the issue in polling and has made the defence of reproductive health a primary issue of her campaign, continuing on from her time as vice-president. The issue may also drive women voters away from Trump.
Both candidates could be presented opportunities to get incredibly personal and contentious in their attacks.
“I think that both candidates are going to try to get under the skin of the other,” Charlie Sykes, a political commentator and former editor-in-chief of the centre-right media outlet The Bulwark, told Global News.
Trump has already attacked Harris over her gender and race — including questioning if Harris, who is Black and South Asian, recently “turned Black” — and could fall into those attacks again Tuesday, despite urgings from his fellow Republicans to avoid them.
Harris has brushed those insults off and could do so effectively if the opportunity strikes, Streichler said.
“If she quickly pivots and says something like, ‘Let’s move on to something actually important to the voters,’ that could work really well and provide a contrast,” he said.
For Harris, a potential pitfall could come if she is asked about Trump’s legal troubles, which have become an incredibly divisive issue among voters. She could alienate voters who are open to supporting her but disagree with prosecuting a presidential candidate if she appears too supportive of the charges and convictions Trump faces.
Ultimately, analysts say Trump is largely defined among most voters given his time in office and multiple campaign appearances, leaving Harris with the harder job.
That includes addressing concerns about shifting policies since the last time she ran for president in 2019, including positions on banning fracking and decriminalizing illegal border crossings.
While debates often don’t move the needle in elections, those analysts add, this one could be different.
“One minute from a 90-minute debate could impact thousands (or even) tens of thousands of votes, which would be enough for this very close election,” said Aaron Kall, a presidential debate expert and director of debates at the University of Michigan.
— with files from Global’s Jackson Proskow and Reggie Cecchini, and the Associated Press
