The latest flurry of Gaza ceasefire talks — the back-and-forth over now-familiar sticking points and appeals from around the world — obscures a grim truth about the months-long efforts to end the Israel-Hamas conflict and free scores of hostages.
Any deal requires the signatures of two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
They are sworn enemies, notoriously tough negotiators and know that the outcome of the talks will profoundly shape their legacies. In Sinwar’s case, it could mean life or death.
Both have strong incentives to end the conflict. But they may also think they stand to gain by holding out a bit longer, and that conflict is preferable to a deal that falls short of their demands.
Here’s a look at the two leaders and the constraints they face.
What does Netanyahu want?
Netanyahu has promised “total victory” over Hamas and the return of all the hostages held in Gaza — goals that many believe are incompatible.
He has come under tremendous pressure from the hostages’ families and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home, even if it leaves a battered Hamas intact. The United States, which has provided key military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, is also pushing for such a deal.
But Netanyahu’s governing coalition relies on far-right ministers who want to permanently reoccupy Gaza and have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much. That would force early elections that could drive him from power at a time when he is on trial for corruption.
It would also hasten a broader reckoning over the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 others — on Netanyahu’s watch.
Netanyahu has rejected calls for a government investigation until the war is over.
The longer the conflict drags on, the more likely Israel is to achieve something that looks like victory — the killing of Sinwar, the rescue of more hostages — and the longer Netanyahu has to repair his political standing and reshape his legacy.
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But it also comes with risks as the number of soldiers killed in action rises nearly every day and Israel becomes increasingly isolated because of the suffering it has inflicted on Palestinians.
Netanyahu has clashed with his own defence minister over the endgame. Israeli media is filled with reports quoting unnamed senior security officials expressing frustration with Netanyahu, especially his demand for lasting control over two strategic corridors in Gaza. Some have gone so far as to accuse him of sabotaging the talks.
Both Israel and Hamas say they have accepted different versions of an evolving U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal in principle, while suggesting changes and accusing the other of making unacceptable demands.
Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democracy Institute, a local think tank, acknowledged the anger directed at Netanyahu in the local press and among segments of Israeli society but said Sinwar bore most of the blame for the impasse because he had shown little interest in compromising.
“If we saw Sinwar was serious about getting a deal, that would force Israel and Netanyahu to expose their cards,” Plesner said. The current situation is “almost like negotiating with oneself.”
Sinwar wants to end the conflict — but only on his terms.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 40,000 people, according to local officials in the Hamas-run health ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilian and militant deaths, displaced 90 per cent of Gaza’s population and destroyed its main cities.
Hamas has lost thousands of fighters and much of its militant infrastructure.
Sinwar’s only bargaining chips are the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead. And he needs much more than a temporary pause in the fighting if he hopes to salvage anything resembling victory from the Oct. 7 attack that he helped mastermind.
That begins with assurances that Israel won’t resume the conflict once some or all of the hostages are freed. He also needs Israel to withdraw from all of Gaza to ensure that the lasting impact of the Oct. 7 attack is not a permanent reoccupation of the territory.
The release of high-profile Palestinian prisoners as part of a deal is a sacred cause for Sinwar, who was himself a long-serving prisoner freed in an exchange. And he needs assurances that Palestinians will be able to return to their homes and rebuild them.
“Sinwar is very much concerned with bringing negotiations to a conclusion, whether with regard to a ceasefire or an exchange of prisoners, because in both cases, Sinwar will have come out as the winner,” said Nabih Awada, a Lebanese political analyst and former militant who spent years in an Israeli prison with Sinwar.
There are risks for Sinwar in drawing the talks out: More hostages are likely to die or be rescued as the conflict grinds on. Death, destruction and hardship in Gaza will continue, and could stoke Palestinian discontent with Hamas, with political implications down the line.
Sinwar himself, who sits atop Israel’s most-wanted list, could be killed at any time. But given the centrality of martyrdom in Hamas’ history and ideology, he may feel that outcome is inevitable — and preferable to a deal that looks like defeat.
Can any external pressure help?
Egypt and Qatar have served as key mediators with Hamas, but their influence is limited.
Any pressure exerted on Hamas’ exiled leadership is unlikely to have much impact on Sinwar, who was appointed the overall head of Hamas after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.
Sinwar is believed to have spent most of the past 10 months living in tunnels under Gaza, and it is unclear how much contact he has with the outside world.
The United States has provided crucial military support for Israel throughout the conflict and has shielded it from international calls for a ceasefire. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden paused a shipment of hundreds of 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs to pressure Israel not to invade the southern city of Rafah — which it did anyway.
U.S. election politics could also blunt American pressure.
Biden has shown little inclination to pressure Netanyahu, and Vice-President Kamala Harris has offered no concrete policy changes. Donald Trump has urged Israel to finish up its offensive but would likely be even more accommodating to Netanyahu, as he was during his presidency.
Any U.S. arms embargo is even less likely when Israel faces a potential retaliatory strike from Iran over the killing of Haniyeh. Instead, the United States has poured military assets into the region, taking some of the pressure off Israel.
Sinwar might have hoped that the targeted killings of Haniyeh and a top Hezbollah commander last month would widen the conflict. But that appears less likely, with both Israel and Hezbollah applying the brakes following a heavy exchange of fire over the weekend.
The ceasefire talks have continued through it all, punctuated by fleeting moments of optimism.
The mediators have spent recent weeks trying to hammer out a bridging proposal with Netanyahu, but it’s still a work in progress. It has not yet been submitted to Sinwar.
